The total cost of eCommerce fraud to merchants is expected to reach $41 billion in 2022 then increase by 17 percent to reach $48 billion in fraud losses in 2023. These forecasts represent eCommerce fraud losses worldwide while North America represents 42 percent of the total globally.
The 42 percent share of global eCommerce fraud losses occurring in North America implies $17.22 billion in eCommerce fraud losses for North American merchants this year and $20.16 billion in losses for 2023. This is according to a new study from Juniper Research, which also identified “the vast volume of data breaches and the broad availability of stolen credit card information as the key risk factors” in the North America region.
Breaking down the eCommerce fraud losses by type of purchases, physical goods make up the largest share, expected to account for nearly half of online payment fraud losses globally over the next five years. Cumulatively, $343 billion in eCommerce merchant fraud losses are expected between 2023 and 2027.
Factors driving the expected increase in fraud losses eCommerce merchants will endure include innovations in account takeover fraud, lax address verification in developing eCommerce markets and increasing use of alternative payments including buy-now-pay-later (BNPL).
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