Merchant eCommerce payment fraud losses on physical goods is forecasted to grow from $1 billion in 2023 to $5.1 billion in 2028 across emerging markets. Globally, merchants are expected to lose $91 billion per year to online payment fraud by 2028, according to forecasts from Juniper Research.
While emerging markets are seeing rapid growth in online payment fraud, established eCommerce markets will continue to make up the majority of the fraud losses. The Africa and Middle East region is expected to have the largest increase in payment fraud losses, rising from $150 million in 2023 to $1.1 billion in 2028. This forecast implies a 643 percent increase in payment fraud over the next five years.
Juniper Research, who published the study and forecasts, cites limited adoption of effective fraud prevention tools available in the Africa and Middle East region while the number of eCommerce and digital transactions is rapidly increasing. Fraud solution providers should look at this market as an area of potential expansion given the need and opportunity, if they are not serving this market already.
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