Digital Commerce 360 has been tracking US online holiday sales growth since 2015 with year-over-year percentage growth in the double-digits each year. That streak is expected to come to an end this holiday season with just 6.1 percent annual growth expected.
Online retail is still growing in the United States, but at a notably lower pace. US eCommerce sales during November and December skyrocketed in 2020 with a 40.8 percent growth rate, which normalized down to a 10 percent growth rate in 2021, falling further to 6.1 percent growth expected for 2022. Pre-pandemic, from 2015 to 2019, US ecommerce holiday sales growth ranged between 13.6 and 17 percent each year.
Although US online retail sales are slowing and more consumers are expected to return to stores this year, eCommerce holiday sales continues to outpace overall retail sales. Digital Commerce 360 forecasts total US holiday retail sales to increase from $881 billion in 2021 to $916 billion this year, a 4 percent increase. Forecasted holiday eCommerce sales growth is 50 percent larger, growing from $211 billion to $224 billion.
Total holiday retail sales are slowing down the pace of growth as are online retail sales in the US. The 4 percent in total retail sales growth this holiday season is less than one-third of the growth rate seen in 2021, 13.4 percent. Total holiday retail sales growth remains above pre-pandemic levels, however, when the median annual growth rate was 3.2 percent over the five years preceding 2020.
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