Although mobile point-of-sale proximity payments comprised just 0.01 percent of the total POS retail purchased volume in 2012 according to Javelin Strategy and Research, they estimate that mobile payments at the point-of-sale will grow eleven-fold over the next six years as they are forecasted to reach $5.4 billion in the U.S. by 2018.
According to Javelin’s POS Forecast Report, the value of mobile proximity payments totaled $500 million in 2012, a very small percentage of the nearly $4 trillion in retail point-of-sale purchases. But as retail POS payments are expected to grow modestly to $4.2 trillion by 2018, Javelin forecasts mobile payments at the point-of-sale to multiply by more than ten reaching $5.4 billion. However, this is still a very small percentage of total retail POS payments at only 0.13 percent.
One of the drivers spurring increased mobile adoption in the near future is the upcoming requirements for EMV in the U.S. As merchants upgrade their payment terminals to be EMV compliant many are purchasing terminals that also include NFC capabilities. Over the course of the forecast time period, mobile payments are expecting the largest percentage growth at the point-of-sale. Mobile payments, along with credit, debit and prepaid cards are expected to grow their share of the U.S. point-of-sale retail volume at the expense of cash, checks and gift cards. The Javelin report predicts that credit cards will grow from 32 percent of retail POS purchases in 2012 to 35 percent in 2018, while debit cards will increase from 30 to 32 percent. Meanwhile, gift cards will decline from $145 billion to $130 billion over this time frame, and checks will fall to 5 percent of total retail POS payments.
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